Is the world ready for decentralized potash supplies?

Multi-local potash production from unconventional sources is not yet at scale or fully competitive with conventional mining, but momentum is building. Technical solutions exist, pilot projects are underway, and with policy and investment support, broader adoption could be feasible within the next decade, especially in regions facing import challenges.

Key points:

• Most global potash production still depends on large, centralized mines in Canada, Russia, Belarus, China, with over 75% of supply coming from these countries[2][10]. Significant production from Germany, Israel, and Jordan also contribute to the global supply. This centralized model of potash production creates access and affordability challenges, especially for the Global South[2][4][6].

• There is a growing recognition of the need for unconventional potash sources, such as polyhalite, potassium silicates, bio-based, and organic products, to promote sustainability and local access, especially where imports are expensive or insecure[2][6][9].

• Technical and economic feasibility: Local production is possible using modular plant designs and processing equipment, as demonstrated by new projects in North America and elsewhere that target incremental, scalable output[3]. However, most unconventional  sources are still less efficient or more costly compared to traditional mined potash, mainly due to slower potassium release or higher processing costs[6].

• Policy and investment: Experts agree that technical viability exists, but policy support, regional investment, and market incentives will be crucial for commercialization and scaling up unconventional, decentralized potash supplies[4][6]. Adoption relies on both government priorities and farmer economics.

• Recent supply-chain shocks have pushed countries like Brazil to invest in local production, and several modular and alternative-source potash projects are being piloted globally, reflecting both need and opportunity for multi-local models[3][9].

Sources

1. Public Summary Short-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2024 – 2025 https://www.fertilizer.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2024_ifa_short_term_outlook_report.pdf

2. Introduction: Why do we need alternative potash? https://conferences.ncl.ac.uk/media/sites/conferencewebsites/iwapconference/IWAP2017-01-Manning.pdf

3. Pioneering Potash for America;s Food Security Future. https://sagepotash.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/SagePotash_ID_2025-05-20_public.pdf

4. Seeking potash alternatives https://news.mit.edu/2015/seeking-potash-alternatives-1102

5. How Much Will Global Potash Demand Grow Through 2050? https://www.canadaaction.ca/growing-global-potash-demand-opportunity-canada

6. How to meet the world’s fertiliser needs https://www.weforum.org/stories/2014/12/how-to-meet-the-worlds-fertiliser-needs/

7. Potash and the Canada–United States Trade Relationship - HillNotes https://hillnotes.ca/2025/06/05/potash-and-the-canada-united-states-trade-relationship/

8. Green Fertilizer Markets and Innovation https://rmi.org/green-fertilizer-markets-innovation/

9. Potash Fertilizer: Canada's Top 7 Agtech Game-Changers https://farmonaut.com/canada/potash-fertilizer-production-canadas-7-game-changers

10. Potash facts - Natural Resources Canada https://natural-resources.canada.ca/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/potash-facts